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 Table of Contents  
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2016  |  Volume : 4  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 109-113

Presentation of a fuzzy model for the crisis management during an earthquake in a Tehran Bus Company


1 Human Resource Management, Islamic Azad University; Human Resource Management, Shakhes Pajouh Research Institute, Isfahan, Iran
2 Human Resource Management, Shakhes Pajouh Institute, Isfahan, Iran

Date of Web Publication27-Dec-2016

Correspondence Address:
Peiman Sanandaji
Shakhes Pajouh Institute, Isfahan
Iran
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/2347-9019.196762

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  Abstract 

Introduction: Tehran is the capital of Iran and Tehran Province. With a population of around 9 million in the city and 16 million in the wider metropolitan area, Tehran is the largest city and urban area of Iran, the second-largest city in western ASIA, and the third-largest city in the Middle East. It is ranked 29 th in the world by the population of its metropolitan area, and the urban planning in crisis is the critical part of city management. Materials and Methods: In this study, we review literature on crisis management theories, approaches, and models of crisis management and the importance of this issue in Tehran public transport by extracting the functional components of transport management by the times of crisis. A research in Tehran Bus Company as one of the most important factors within urban transport during the years 2012 and 2013 conducted to assess the human impact among various factors, logistics, and factors related to buildings and inventory management through the use of expert opinions and research library and taking into account the behavioral patterns of residents and users of municipal services and various crisis scenarios. Results: It conducts behavioral model of urban transport services (Tehran Bus Company) and the strategic model in three stages. Information, technology, and the development of model behavior after the earthquake, the current situation from three perspectives, and single company-fleet-building of human resources ultimately provide a model for crisis management phase during an earthquake in the city of Tehran bus. We want to know how we can improve this mode of public transportation during an earthquake. Conclusion: The main purpose of this study is finding the main and underlying features of crisis management that in line with the cited purpose, and general framework for crisis management during earthquakes was established. According to the results of this study after determination of the strengths and weaknesses' points of the organization in crisis management, the organization can identify suitable approach and appropriate strategies for crisis management during earthquake and employ best practices in order to enhance crisis management in the organization and maintain their strengths and reinforce weaknesses and destroy barriers that reduce crisis management in organization.

Keywords: Crisis, crisis management, crisis management cycle, urban street network


How to cite this article:
Mahmoudzadeh A, Sanandaji P. Presentation of a fuzzy model for the crisis management during an earthquake in a Tehran Bus Company. Int J Health Syst Disaster Manage 2016;4:109-13

How to cite this URL:
Mahmoudzadeh A, Sanandaji P. Presentation of a fuzzy model for the crisis management during an earthquake in a Tehran Bus Company. Int J Health Syst Disaster Manage [serial online] 2016 [cited 2019 Dec 12];4:109-13. Available from: http://www.ijhsdm.org/text.asp?2016/4/4/109/196762


  Introduction Top


Iran is one of the most natural disaster-prone countries in the world that natural disasters have caused extensive damage to its lives and property. Since Iran is located in the relatively high-risk field of earthquake-prone based on the regulations 2800 (on the belt marked of earthquake-prone areas) among these natural disasters, the most damaging disaster is the earthquake that is observed almost every year around the country.

Tehran metropolis due to the high population (about 8 to more than 13.6 million people a day), large area, lack of proper urban structure-based engineering and urban geography, very high density, old and inappropriate ramps, very high density of vehicles during the day, especially in the time of traffic peak, unstable buildings against earthquake, and no relief in times of disaster is very important to prepare before, during, and after the crisis.

One of the most important facts during and after the crisis management we need is to consider transport issues following the crisis. Because of specific behaviors of injured people urban streets capacity reduced and blockages caused by earthquake damage to public transport systems (subway and bus) and counter clockwise movements (the arrival of reinforcements to the city and people fleeing the city). All the most fundamental factors needed in the prevention are required after the earthquake.

Transport is the most basic requirement but in terms of obstruction will not be possible. All of the above lead to this problem that perhaps the only way to improve transportation urban bus system.

In addition, the need to transport survivors out of town, the need for relief with by public transport, the use of these devices for first aid and distribute food and medical care, to the position of transport public transport is particularly important.


  Materials and Methods Top


The relative high risk of earthquake in Tehran, importance of keeping the urban city bus system active after an earthquake, lack of information on the behavior model of employees and citizens, and also the lack of knowledge about available resources of organization after the earthquake make this research necessary. On the other hand, with a review of existing literature, extensive conducted research in the development of a strategic model of crisis management, especially in urban transport systems (bus), is not considered by focusing on employee behavior pattern after the earthquake, and in most studies, only one aspect of crisis management is considered logistically and other aspects in organizations have not been documented in a comprehensive investigation that this subject increases importance of the present investigation.

Considering that after the earthquake, having knowledge of the amount of resources and equipment as well as a good understanding of the behavior pattern of employees and citizens in Tehran and having sufficient skills on how to deal with such cases are the only ways to deal with the crisis. lack of detailed research on the development of a strategic model of crisis management especially in urban transport systems (bus) occurred. This study is in Tehran and the Tehran Bus Company that is one of the major citizens transport factors within the city and during the years 2012 and 2013, by study of influence of various human, logistical, administrative and related factors of buildings and considering behavior patterns of residents and users of municipal services and various crisis scenarios, attempted to investigate the behavioral model of urban transport services staff (Tehran Bus Company) and attempted to provide a fuzzy model of crisis management during the earthquake. The model specifies the roles of bus transportation system before and after the accident (earthquake) and how to define these roles. [1]


  Prior Literature Top


Studying the literature in the field of crisis management theories indicates that the concept of crisis has three distinct visions.

Traditional view

In this view, the crisis is essentially negative and undesirable phenomenon and knows that must be avoided in any way. According to this view, crises have quite destructive nature.

Natural law view

Proponents of this view know crisis as part of the nature of human life, and is still negative toward the crisis with the difference that unlike the first view, do not try to deny and avoid crisis rather choose perfectly logic position to it.

Interactive view

This view sees the crisis as being positive and believes it will not only be negated or denied but also should be appreciated and welcomed. This view is a dynamic, change and social mobility view and, thus, knows the crisis as a part of social dialectics that are necessary for the growth and development of society.

According to these three types of cited views, three approaches can be identified in crisis management (Roshandel Arbtayi et al., 2009):

  • The crisis-aversion approach: Managers, who choose this approach, use a passive and reactive approach toward the crisis
  • The crisis-controversy approach: This approach does not escape from crisis but confront and deal with crisis by accepting it as a natural law, with a proactive strategy
  • The crisis-flexible approach: This management approach predicts and welcomes crisis in addition to accepting crisis as an inevitable.

  Research Questions and Hypotheses Top


The key questions

  1. What is strategic model for crisis management with behavioral approach in Tehran Bus Company?
  2. What are the effective factors in crisis management during an earthquake in Tehran Bus Company?
  3. What are the strategies for dealing with crisis in earthquake in Tehran Bus Company?
Subquestions

  1. Does the behavioral pattern after the earthquake have impact on the citizen's use of bus system?
  2. Do human factors have impact on crisis management during an earthquake?
  3. Do fleet logistical factors affect the crisis management during an earthquake?
  4. Do management factors have impact on crisis management during an earthquake?
  5. Do the factors associated with the buildings have impact on crisis management during an earthquake?
The main assumptions

  1. Crisis will reduce the efficiency of the bus company
  2. The crisis has an impact on the level of citizens' trust to the bus system.
Sub-assumptions

  1. The behavior model after the earthquake has an impact on citizen's use of the bus system
  2. Human factors have an impact on crisis management during an earthquake
  3. Logistics fleet factors have an effect on crisis management during an earthquake
  4. Managerial factors affect management during an earthquake
  5. Factors associated with buildings affect crisis management during earthquakes.

  Data Collecting Method Top


In this research in order to gather needed information used the basis of theoretical and conceptual model of library and review the latest scientific papers and original books on crisis management and urban management.

To refine and finalize components of effective crisis management during the earthquake and provide a conceptual model, use the views of experts and provide basic model of exploratory interviews and parallel library resources, and then use the questionnaire to obtain experts opinions.


  Crisis Management Model Designing Steps during the Earthquake in Bus Company Top


Evaluating the design model process of knowledge sharing from initial study, resource search, interviews with experts to implement the model is shown in [Figure 1].
Figure 1: Evaluating the design model process of knowledge sharing

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  The Conceptual Model for Crisis Management during an Earthquake in Bus Company Top


In this study, the algorithm of steps to achieve conceptual model is as follows:

  • Find the factors affecting the crisis management based on articles and books
  • Selection of the experts and explain problem to them
  • Preparation of the questionnaire and send it to the experts
  • Get expert opinion and apply detailed analytical analysis
  • Develop initial model.
Based on the findings of researcher from other scientific resources and interviews with experts in the field of crisis management, this model comprises four main indicators and 16 sub-indicators that are mentioned as follows.

Human factors

In the following, we would like to mention the most important indicators of human capital.

  • Organizational commitment of staff
  • Personal experience and efficiency of staff
  • Appropriate behavior of citizens
  • Mental preparation.
Fleet logistical factors

  • Unsuitable fleet physical condition
  • Access to first aid inside the bus
  • Access to fire-fighting equipment and emergency exits doors
  • Access to emergency exits doors on buses.
Management factors

  • Strategic planning of crisis
  • Training for staff
  • The number of insured citizens
  • Opposition applications with crisis in the organization.
Factors related to buildings

  • Parking status
  • Passages status
  • Gas station status
  • Repair shop status.
By the study of the referred indices through questionnaires distributed among the experts, all four major indicators of human, fleet logistical, management, and buildings and related factors have been determined influential in crisis management.

The extracted conceptual model for this study is shown in [Figure 2].
Figure 2: Crisis management concept model during the earthquake in bus company

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  Analysis Top


Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis is said to study the effectiveness of output variables from input variables of a model. In other words, it is a way to change the inputs of model systematically (systematic) that can predict these variables in the model output. In this model, value of 0.2 was added to each four main input Fuzzy Inference system (FIS) of crisis management during the earthquake in bus company in separate steps that the results are presented in [Table 1] [Table 2] [Table 3].
Table 1: Evaluation of the sensitivity analysis of the crisis management indicators during the earthquake in bus company


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Table 2: Evaluation of sensitivity analysis on the sub-indicators of human factors (Trim)


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Table 3: Evaluation of the sensitivity analysis in the sub-indicators of management factors


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According to the obtained values, it was determined that two main indicators of human and management factors have the greatest effect on crisis management in bus company that in continue, we will examine the sensitivity analysis of the sub-indicators.

[Table 2] shows sensitivity analysis on the sub-indicators of human factors.

According to the obtained values, it is obvious that for every 0.2 unit increase in H2 (personal experience and efficiency of the staff), human factors have increased more.

[Table 3] shows Sensitivity analysis on the sub-indicators of management factors.

According to the obtained values, it is obvious that for every 0.2 unit increase in H1 (strategic planning), management factors have indicated more growth.


  Results and Discussion Top


This study started by asking question "what model is suitable for crisis management during an earthquake in Tehran Bus Company and how we can present a better model for crisis management during an earthquake in Tehran Bus Company?" The main purpose of that is finding the main and underlying features of crisis management that in line with the cited purpose, general framework for crisis management during earthquakes was established. According to the results of this study after determination of the strengths and weaknesses' points of the organization in crisis management, the organization can identify suitable approach and appropriate strategies for crisis management during earthquake and employ best practices to enhance crisis management in the organization and maintain their strengths and reinforce weaknesses and destroy barriers that reduce crisis management in organization.

Further directions

Since this research is a continuous process that is widely developing, applicable suggestion can highlight axis to develop models and improve crisis management issues during earthquakes in the bus company.

  • The bus company should invest more in the human and management factors section to increases crisis management during the earthquake according to the obtained results of the sensitivity analysis
  • According to the results of the sensitivity analysis section of managers, the organization should pay more attention to strategic planning and to institute organization programs to deal with the crisis.
The bus company in the human factors section should provide more use of experienced and efficient personnel for better crisis management.[2]

Financial support and sponsorship

Nil.

Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.

 
  References Top

1.
Ahmadi A, Rasouli R, Rajabzade Ghatari A, Gholizade PP. "Presentation of Crisis Management Model with a Focus on Management Systems" Human Resources for Hospitals of Tehran, University of Management, Tehran University; 2012. p. 1-24.  Back to cited text no. 1
    
2.
Marsden AW. Training railway operating staff to understand and manage passenger and crowd behavior. Industrial and Commercial Training (Emeral Publishing Group Limited); 1998. p. 171-5.  Back to cited text no. 2
    


    Figures

  [Figure 1], [Figure 2]
 
 
    Tables

  [Table 1], [Table 2], [Table 3]



 

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  In this article
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Me...
Prior Literature
Research Questio...
Data Collecting ...
Crisis Managemen...
The Conceptual M...
Analysis
Results and Disc...
References
Article Figures
Article Tables

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