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 Table of Contents  
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2015  |  Volume : 3  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 206-211

Impact analysis of foresight capabilities on improving crisis management


1 PhD Student of Human Resources Management of Shakhes Pajouh Research Institute, Isfahan, India
2 Member of the Academic Board of Management Group of University of Isfahan, Isfahan, India
3 Member of the Academic Board of Shakhes Pajouh Research Institute, Isfahan, India

Date of Web Publication11-Aug-2015

Correspondence Address:
Mostafa Aghahosseini Eshkavandi
Isfahan BTO, 3rd Moshtagh, Isfahan
India
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Source of Support: Isfahan Blood Transfusion Organization, Iran, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/2347-9019.162556

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  Abstract 

Introduction: Using the ability of foresight for developing blood supply and blood products prospect is very important to maintain the health of people and in many cases. The use of blood and blood products has saved the lives of many people at risk. Foresight and futures studies is a systematic attempt to look at the long-term future in the areas of science, technology, economy, environment, and society with the aim of identifying new emerging technologies and identifying those sections that investment is more likely to have social and economic profitability. This study aims to evaluate the ability of foresight on improving the management of Blood Transfusion Organization in Isfahan. Method: The research population of this research is consisted of 61 subjects that are managers, officials, and experts in Blood Transfusion Organization of Isfahan in 3 disaster-prone organizations of the country with a minimum of 10 years of experience. The questionnaire of foresight capability to manage crisis was designed and after collecting data using the software SPSS Version 22, AMOS was analyzed. Result: Based on the results obtained foresight capabilities effectiveness of on improving the risk management is 89%. This means that 89% of crisis management changes are related to foresight capability. Conclusion: Foresight capabilities strategic in improving crisis management in BTO have significant effect

Keywords: Blood Transfusion Organization, crisis management, foresight capabilities


How to cite this article:
Eshkavandi MA, Dolatabadi HR, Tabatabai SA. Impact analysis of foresight capabilities on improving crisis management. Int J Health Syst Disaster Manage 2015;3:206-11

How to cite this URL:
Eshkavandi MA, Dolatabadi HR, Tabatabai SA. Impact analysis of foresight capabilities on improving crisis management. Int J Health Syst Disaster Manage [serial online] 2015 [cited 2024 Mar 29];3:206-11. Available from: https://www.ijhsdm.org/text.asp?2015/3/4/206/162556


  Introduction Top


Futures studies and foresight are the concepts that have a wide range of meanings, and both areas have great potential for crisis management requirements. Range futures research and foresight, is very broad, because it deals with many areas of knowledge and human studies. Interestingly, when we understand to predict the future, beyond the scientific knowledge we need a bold and imaginative idea to materialize these impossible ideas with a fresh determination and build a new future. In addition that thinking about the future and it's events has a long history. Looking back we see that in all the times, people wanted to know what will place in the way of their lives. How will the future be for them? and etc. Although regarding the reasons for this interest to discover the future and also how to think about the future in the passage of time we have witnessed changes. At a time, most people believed that we cannot change future and that is our destiny that determines the future. So people were only interested in their fate. Over time, this idea was believed that our present actions determine tomorrow. That is why interest to discover the future events spread. Everyone wanted to know what ways there are to recognize the future? Is the future ahead of us good? What are different routes that we can have in future? What are the best and most possible routes? These are all questions that answering them will influence the way that we choose for the future. Using the foresight capability to develop a vision of providing blood and blood products to maintain health is very important and in many cases, the use of blood and blood products has saved the lives of many people at risk. Human search in the face of natural disasters caused the creation of a knowledge that started from identifying the effects of the crisis and led to the science of crisis management. In fact, from the most important issues remained hidden in the most natural disasters of the country, particularly earthquakes is priority setting of goals, plans, strategies and briefly in connection with crisis management. Crisis management is a field of study that teaches the crisis managers how to predict the crisis and intercept it and get ready to deal with it and how to deal with it effectively. A survey in performed studies on this concept indicates that these studies focus on four fundamental aspects that are (reasons for the emergence of the crisis, precautions, consequences of the crisis, postcrisis measures). In this regard, in order to reduce the risks and injuries of crisis. It is better to establish and maintain interactions between institutions (such as hospitals Blood Transfusion Organization, etc.) education sector and logistics. After understanding the foresight capability to develop the vision and having the strategy to deal with the crisis. It can be said that crisis management is a practical knowledge which oversees the entire process of cycle of crisis and originates from changeable process. Designing, establishing, and making a difference in a changeable system requires a series of basic information and after collecting data and classifying them. The main problem must be clear that whether it is possible using the available resources, to compensate the needs and failures to achieve the desired situation? In this research, we are following this issue that how foresight capabilities influence to improve crisis management at the Blood Transfusion Organization. Theoretical literature of the research considering the difference between forecasting and predicting is very important because foresight is a process not a technology which does not aim to predict the future, but to shape and build a future, with determining and adapting with long-term prospects to ensure optimal conditions. Foresight is a process that involves a systematic attempt to see the future of science, technology, economy, environment, and society aiming to identify emerging technologies and Strategic Research infrastructures (to create the greatest social and economic benefits). [1] Foresight is not a method of planning. But its results, raises information on future, which can put foresight as a step in disaster management planning, decision-making and preparing measures. Term forecast is somewhat at odds with the concept of foresight. Forecast, that is, the especial use of the terminal phase of decline, that is, the forecasting and early warning and planning for forecasts (in short-term) with the best accuracy are basically for early warning and planning for early initiatives of the response. Any projection of future conditions refers to a certain degree of uncertainty. [2] Forecast is a description of most likely future under current conditions. Forecasts are useful in the short-term, but in the long run lose their importance, because they do not pay attention to future events, early warning can yield effectively (to prevent) the events. If citizens threatened by risks are not aware or informed or not persuaded to deal with residual risks, crisis management will not succeed. While term forecast is to predict the future, foresight is a term that describe a wider perspective on the future of futurist thinking. Foresights focus on future identification of possible potential issues, trends, and lack of certainties and are similar wit the term future analysis. Hasty structural changes in the community (rapid growth, redirection of receiving information, change of cultural attitudes and thus change of the culture of reaction to disasters, growing expectations of citizens to deal properly with disasters, demographic changes, etc.), economy (change in the value of assets, the change in the exchange of business transactions and thus, the need to maintain trade infrastructures (e.g., maintaining the computers, networks, etc.), advancement of technology (ways of communication such as, smart mobile phones, search tools to save, the growth of social networks, etc.) requires new ways of thinking and it is future-oriented thinking that at each stage of the crisis management plan, to be conducted depended on the considered period and plans should be oriented toward the future. Because otherwise the crisis management plans are not adequate or may even be in advantage. Future-oriented activities in order to accomplish the goals and visions, prompt a group of experts and professionals and stakeholders to search for compatible scenarios (due to shared perspectives and strategic actions). Bringing together experts from various organizations and specialized areas with citizens will ultimately lead to the potential effects in policy-making. Future-oriented activities will lead the distribution of knowledge and collective reasoning and can cause a change in the perceptions of those involved in crisis management. [3] Crisis management is an important issue that in recent years has been emphasized greatly by the workers of practice and thought area. Crises are part of the business environment and removing all the crises that threaten the organization is impossible. [4] Crisis management enables the organization to eliminate some of the crises, and handle some others necessarily and obtain the required tools to learn the crises fully and quickly. [5] Crisis management is a term that cover all aspects of planning for crisis and crisis-related activities, including activities before and after the crisis. It also addresses the mutual management of the risks and consequences of the crisis. [6] Crisis management is a practical knowledge through systemic observation of crises and analyzing them seek a tool through which to prevent crises or in the case of emergence to be ready to reduce its effects, early relief and improving the situation. [7] In today's business world, the only thing is clear is that managers need to be ready for uncertainty, especially in the today world that uncertainties are an integral part of activities. Disasters are adverse events that can cause the decline of organizations. In times of crisis narcissism and self-satisfaction, can't effectively assist managers in making decisions, but it will make them confused. Managers who fail to recognize the crisis and do not have any plan for it, will face serious problems during the crisis. Effective crisis management requires a disciplined and systematic approach based on management awareness and sensitivity and a good understanding of the importance of careful planning and organizational preparedness. Based on this definition and according to what mentioned regarding the definition of crisis management and its variants. It should be stated that foresight and using futures studies can be one of the best techniques in the optimized management of future which may occur at the critical moment. Hence, it is important not to overlook this point and try for proper use of it. Certainly, emerging knowledge futures studies provides many lessons for crisis management and stronger education of the people with the aim of readiness to deal positively and effectively in times of crisis. [8] Therefore, considering the capabilities of foresight and crisis management the main question of this research is how can we strengthen organization inputs including foresight capabilities, to be able to manage effectively and efficiently the crises available in the blood transfusion.


  Research Objectives Top


The main objective of this research: Analyzing the impact of foresight capabilities to improve crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization.

Secondary objectives of the study

  • Analyzing the impact of using information on crisis management improvement in Blood Transfusion Organization
  • Analyzing the impact of rational approach to improve crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization
  • Analyzing the impact of staff and networks on improving the crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization
  • Analyzing the impact of organization capacity on improving the crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization
  • Analyzing the impact of culture on improving the crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization.



  Research Questions Top


The main question of the research

What is the degree of foresight capability to improve the management of Blood Transfusion Organization?

Secondary research questions

  • What is the effect of using information to improve crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization?
  • What is the effect of rational approach to improve the effectiveness of crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization?
  • What is the impact of staff and networks on management improvements in Blood Transfusion Organization?
  • What is the impact of the effectiveness of organization on improving the crisis management capacity in Blood Transfusion Organization?
  • What is the impact of culture on improving the crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization?



  Research Method Top


This research is an applied one in terms of purpose, a practical and developmental one in terms of nature of the data and is a descriptive one in terms of characteristics of the research method. In the cross-correlation method in addition to the use of scientific literature and available books and documents, individuals and partners in the research are directly referred and the required data are collected. In this research, by referring to the scientific and research literatures, the theoretical concepts and maximum scientific level are exactly covered. Then the main components and variables are identified and under observation of the faculty supervisor and consultant professors the questionnaires were prepared and after face and content validity approval the questionnaire is performed on all samples. This plan is conducted based on a survey carried out by experts. The statistical population of this research is managers, officials, and experts in the Blood Transfusion Organization of Isfahan and 3 accident-prone provinces of the country with a minimum of 10 years' experience consisting of 161 people. In this research, simple random sampling was used. In this study, the field and library methods are used to collect data. In the field method, a questionnaire was used to collect data. In the library method, in addition to use English books and papers the computer research is also used to collect the latest information on the field of research. In this study, in order to analyze the data and test the hypotheses of the research the software SPSS version 22 (IBM company), AMOS version 20 (IBM company) were used.


  Research Findings Top


After developing a theoretical model to explain the phenomenon under study and measure defined latent variables. It is necessary to discuss and analyze general and differential model parameters to determine whether the experimental are supportive of developed theoretical model or not. Existence of several components in the model developed model led the researchers to estimate and test the present measurement models initially before that developed models to be estimated and tested at this step. We can say that examining the structural relations between latent variables is interpreted more rational and meaningful when measuring hidden structures to be according to acceptable scientific standards. Existence of poor overall fit indices for each of the measurement models means that the entrance of that measurement pattern to the structural equation model can face the researcher with wrong in analysis of structural relationships between latent variables. In other words, the most important step in the statistical analysis of standard error of the mean is evaluation of the fit of the model to the data. Before making any causal relationships between structures. It is necessary to confirm fitting the model to the data. Before you can do this, the normality of the data is tested.

Test Kolmogorov-Smirnov

Using test Kolmogorov-Smirnov (normal, uniform, poisson, and exponential) distribution of data for quantitative variables can be examined. In the present study, this test is used to assess the normality of the questionnaire and in the case of establishment of this condition parametric statistical tests and the maximum likelihood method are used in the structural equations. The results of these tests are presented in [Table 1].
Table 1: The results of test Kolmogorov-Smirnov in the sample

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  • H 0 : Research is normally distributed
  • H 1 : Research data are not normally distributed.


Given that the significance level of the test is higher than 0.5, normality of the questionnaire items is accepted and we can use parametric tests and the ML method in structural equations modeling. Estimating and testing the measurement models (confirmatory factor models). To determine to what extent the applied indicators are acceptable for the measurement models all measurement models must be analyzed separately. In [Table 2] we can see the results of the confirmatory factor analysis.
Table 2: Results of confirmatory factor analysis

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As can be seen in [Table 2] given that factor loading of all items is >0.5 it can be concluded that the items measure the data well.

The results of structural equation

After review and approval of measurement models in the first step, in the second step the structural equations are used to test the hypothesis.

The main hypothesis of this study

The impact of foresight capabilities to improve crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization.

The general parameters of the model fitness related to the hypothesis that influence the effect of foresight capabilities to improve crisis management in Blood Transfusion Organization are summarized in [Table 3]. Furthermore, the structural equation model is presented in [Figure 1].
Figure 1: The structural equation model

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Table 3: Overall indices of fitness of structural equations model analysis of the theory

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As can be seen in [Table 3], due to the fitness indices and their reception areas model is a good fit. Regression coefficient associated with this hypothesis and the values of the partial indices are given in [Table 4].
Table 4: Regression coefficient (original hypothesis test result)

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Given the significance level of hypothesis testing in the above table as has been shown hypothesis, because of the smaller significance than 0.05, have been approved.


  Lateral Findings of the Research Top


Descriptive statistics of research structures

[Table 5] shows the mean indices, variance, standard deviation (SD), mode, maximum, and minimum values of each of the variables. The highest mean related to culture has been associated with the structure of strategic foresight capability with mean 24.4, and the minimum mean value was associated with the rational method of the structure of strategic foresight capabilities, with the mean 4.09. Other descriptive indicators can be seen in the table below.
Table 5: Descriptive statistics of research structures

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  • According to [Table 5] foresight capabilities have a minimum amount of 48.2 and maximum amount of 00.5, and mean 14.4, and SD 61.0 have been reported for this component. Among the sub-components of foresight capability, culture has the highest mean (4.24) and rational method has the lowest mean (4.09), culture has the lowest SD (0.62) and rational method has the highest SD (0.77)
  • In [Table 5] crisis management has the least amount of 2.33 and maximum amount of 5.00, and the mean 19.4, and SD 0.59 has also been reported for this component. Among the sub-components of crisis management, preparedness has the highest mean (4.22) and risk analysis has the lowest mean (4.17), forecasting and early preparedness (readiness) and early accountability have the lowest SD (0.61) and retrieval has the maximum SD (0.66).



  Conclusion Top


This research was conducted about the study of the impact of foresight capabilities to improve disaster management in Blood Transfusion Organization of Isfahan Province and 3 accident-prone provinces elected in 2013. In this study, initially principal components and the variables of the research were defined and then according to them the questionnaire was prepared and provided for the statistical population of the sample. According to conducted studies for foresight capability, five indicators entitled the use of information, rational approach, staff and networks, capacity of organization and culture and for crisis management 6 indices entitled risk analysis, prevention and reduction of harmful effect, preparedness, forecasting and early preparedness, accountability, and retrieval were used. Based on the obtained results the mean of foresight capability is 14.4 among the components of foresight capabilities, culture has the most mean 24.4 and rational method has the least mean 4.09. In addition, the mean of crisis management is 19.4 and among the components of crisis management, preparedness has with the highest mean (4.22) and risk analysis has the lowest mean (4.17). To test the hypothesis, AMOS structural equation modeling was used. Based on the results obtained, the influence of the foresight capability on improving crisis management is 0.89 which means that 89% of crisis management changes are related to foresight capabilities.

 
  References Top

1.
Martin B. Foresight in science and technology. Technol Anal and Strateg Manage 1995; 7:139-68.  Back to cited text no. 1
    
2.
Shimokawa S. Takeuchi Y. Uncertainty in flood risks and public understanding of probable rainfall. In: Ikeda S, Fukuzono T, Sato T, editors. A Better Integrated Management of Disaster Risks in Mega-Cities. Tokyo: TERRAPUB Terra Scientific Publishing Company; 2006. p. 109-19.  Back to cited text no. 2
    
3.
Mohajer KF, Givehchi S. Integrating Concepts of Foresight and Forecasting the Method of Improving Crisis Management of Natural Disasters, Paper Presented at the Seventh National Congress of Civil Engineering. Iran, Zahedan: Faculty of Engineering Shahid Nikbakht; 2012.  Back to cited text no. 3
    
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Jaques T. Embedding issue management as strategic element of crisis prevention. Disaster Prev Manage 2010;19:469-82.  Back to cited text no. 4
    
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Mazlumi N. Crisis management: A strategic approach. J Improv Transform Stud 1999;25:65-82.  Back to cited text no. 5
    
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Badri SA. Introduction to Disaster Management (Fundamentals). Tehran: Training Booklet of Municipalities and Social Councils; 2004.  Back to cited text no. 6
    
7.
Elahi FN. Identifying Crisis and Crisis Management. Paper Presented at Third International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering. Tehran, Iran; 2007.  Back to cited text no. 7
    
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Sahami E. Futures studies, a new and efficient method in crisis management. J Inst Res Index Esfahan 2013;13:14-16.  Back to cited text no. 8
    


    Figures

  [Figure 1]
 
 
    Tables

  [Table 1], [Table 2], [Table 3], [Table 4], [Table 5]



 

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  In this article
Abstract
Introduction
Research Objectives
Research Questions
Research Method
Research Findings
Lateral Findings...
Conclusion
References
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